|Elections are set for Tuesday, November 6|
The U.S. Senate Elections are set for Tuesday, November 6.
Although I will not give numerical odds, there is a chance that these 6 states could see an upset on Tuesday. However, given the right odds, I just might vote on the following candidates to pull off an upset on election date.
Clear Favorites are in Green: They are up by at least 5 percent points in the 11/3/18 Real Clear Politics average of polls
From most likely to be upset, to least likely.
New Jersey: Menendez (D,I) vs. Hugin (R): Menendez is simply disliked too much locally for brush-ins with ethic violations. Although New Jersey is a solidly blue state, voters may simply not be able to stomach voting for him on Tuesday. An upset is possible.
California: Feinstein (D,I) vs. deLeon (D) (note: California's System has two Democrats running against each other): The large undecided vote is a wild card that could turn against Feinstein.
Texas: Cruz (R,I) vs. O'Rourke (D): O'Rourke is catching up in the late polls. Still, Texas is Texas, and Trump remains popular here.
Tennessee: Blackburn (R) vs. Bredesen (D): Although Bredesen is a popular former governor, the Republican machine in Tennessee will turn out the vote for Blackburn on Tuesday.
West Virginia: Manchin (D,I) vs. Morrissey (R): Trump is highly popular in West Virginia, and Morrissey has made some polling inroads. I do not see an upset as being likely, the Manchin machine will get out the vote on Tuesday.
North Dakota: Kramer (R) vs. Heitkamp (D,I): Heitkamp has pulled victories out of tight elections before. However, Kramer is too comfortably ahead in the polls right now to see this as more than a 1 in 20 chance at best.
Democratic Party Candidate: D
Republican Party Candidate: R
Incumbent Senator Running for Reelection: I
Note: The following states have no clear front runners as of today. A case could be made in betting on either candidate. I list the incumbent first here.
Arizona: Sinema (D) vs. McSally (R)
Florida: Nelson (D,I) vs. Scott (R)
Indiana: Donnelly (D,I) vs. Braun (R)
Missouri: McCaskill (D,I) vs. Hawley (R)
Montana: Tester (D, I) vs. Rosendale (R)
Nevada: Heller (R,I) vs. Rosen (D)