Saturday, November 3, 2018

Upset Alert -- Which States Might See Upsets in the U.S. Senate Elections on Tuesday?

Elections are set for Tuesday, November 6

The U.S. Senate Elections are set for Tuesday, November 6. 

Although I will not give numerical odds, there is a chance that these 6 states could see an upset on Tuesday. However, given the right odds, I just might vote on the following candidates to pull off an upset on election date.

Clear Favorites are in Green: They are up by at least 5 percent points in the  11/3/18 Real Clear Politics average of polls

From most likely to be upset, to least likely. 

New Jersey: Menendez (D,I) vs. Hugin (R):    Menendez is simply disliked too much locally for brush-ins with ethic violations. Although New Jersey is a solidly blue state, voters may simply not be able to stomach voting for him on Tuesday.  An upset is possible.

California: Feinstein (D,I) vs. deLeon (D)  (note: California's System has two Democrats running against each other):  The large undecided vote is a wild card that could turn against Feinstein.

Texas: Cruz (R,I) vs. O'Rourke (D):  O'Rourke is catching up in the late polls. Still, Texas is Texas, and Trump remains popular here.

Tennessee:  Blackburn (R) vs. Bredesen (D): Although Bredesen is a popular former governor, the Republican machine in Tennessee will turn out the vote for Blackburn on Tuesday.

West Virginia: Manchin (D,I) vs.  Morrissey (R):  Trump is highly popular in West Virginia, and Morrissey has made some polling inroads. I do not see an upset as being likely, the Manchin machine will get out the vote on Tuesday.

North Dakota: Kramer (R) vs. Heitkamp (D,I):  Heitkamp has pulled victories out of tight elections before. However, Kramer is too comfortably ahead in the polls right now to see this as more than a 1 in 20 chance at best. 


Glossary:

Democratic Party Candidate: D
Republican Party Candidate: R
Incumbent Senator Running for Reelection: I


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Note: The following states have no clear front runners as of today. A case could be made in betting on either candidate. I list the incumbent first here.


Arizona:  Sinema (D) vs. McSally (R)

Florida:  Nelson (D,I) vs. Scott (R)

Indiana:  Donnelly (D,I) vs. Braun (R)

Missouri:  McCaskill (D,I) vs. Hawley (R)

Montana:  Tester (D, I) vs. Rosendale (R)

Nevada:    Heller (R,I) vs. Rosen (D)


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