Sunday, November 4, 2018

My Final Predictions For the 2018 Midterms on Tuesday, November 6

Here are my final predictions for the U.S. 2018 Midterm Elections


D- Democrats
R- Republicans

The Senate  


35 Seats out of 100 are up for election:   9 R,  26 D


  • 51 R, 49 D                
Final Prediction:   

Although more Democrats win seats (24 Democrats to 11 Republicans), Republicans increase their number of seats in the Senate to 53.

  • 53 R, 47 D                

1. The Democratic Senators include 2 Independents up for reelection in 2018 who vote with the Democrats (Sanders, Vermont and King, Maine) and are included in their totals

2. One of Mississippi's 2 Senate seats will go to a final election on November 27 if a candidate does not receive 50% of the vote. However, the Republican candidate is favored to win. 

3. 33 Senate Seats are usually up for election since Senate seats have 6 year terms. However, two seats (Minnesota and Mississippi) are special elections to fill vacancies. 


The House of Representatives

All 435 Seats are up for election:

  • 235 R,  193 D, 7 Vacancies

Final Prediction:  

The Democrats will increase their number of seats by 32 and take control of the House of Representatives by 15 seats.

  • 225 D,  210 R


Gubernatorial Elections:

Although I have not made gubernatorial predictions in this blog except for Florida, here are my predictions for 2018.

36 of the 50 States will be election their governor.

The current breakout overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party:  26 R, 9 D, 1 Independent

I predict that Democrats will win at least 9 states from Republicans. They will win at least 18 of the 36 states up for election, including most of the more populous states.  There is a chance that of the 10 largest states, only Texas will have a Republican governor at the end of Tuesday night.

Michigan, Illinois, and Florida are three top 10 states which currently have Republican governors and have Democratic candidates leading in polls.   Ohio and Georgia are two top 10  states that currently have Republican governors but may elect Democrats. They are currently too close to call.

Democrats are also poised to make a large turn-around in state legislative elections.

Note- You can see final results here: