Thursday, November 1, 2018

Half of the Florida Vote is Now In - An Analysis of Where Things Stand In the Ultimate 2018 Swing State

Let's not waste any time --

As readers here know, Florida is the ultimate purple state.  Florida not only is the U.S.A's  third biggest state in terms of population (after California and Texas), it has two races this year for Senator and Governor which are very close and will set the tone for the upcoming 2020 Presidential elections.

Florida also votes early. Anyone can request an early mail-in ballot, and early voting is now taking place across the state.

Florida also reports its ballots by county -- we know who has voted by party registration, and by county. In fact, actual voters are known to party election workers. If you have not voted, you can be sure that your local party volunteers are now contacting you to get you to the polls.

So what do we know about the projected vote?

All numbers are taken from Steve Schale's website. Steve Schale is President Obama's former statewide campaign manager, and is keeping a daily count of where things stand in terms of the Florida vote.

As of this morning, about half of all votes are in (3,414,365).

An estimated 7 - 7.5 million Floridians will vote in the 2018 midterms. We can project this number off the number of mail in ballots and interest in early voting.

This number is below the 9.1 million Floridians who votes in the 2016 election. This is to be expected for a midterm.

This number, however, will exceed the 2014 number by at least 1.1 million votes. There is substantially more interest in this midterm than there was in 2014.

Although slightly more registered Republicans than registered Democrats have voted in Florida to date, this is to be expected since mail-in ballots tend to trend Republican. In addition, early voting is edging closer, and the non-affiliated vote is expected to trend towards the Democrats.

The important news is that enthusiasm among black and latino voters, and newly registered college students is at levels not seen since 2008, when President Obama carried Florida by a wide margin.

My projections --

The election will be close in America's #1 swing state, but Andrew Gillum, the young (39) and telegenic African-American mayor of Tallahassee, Florida who is running for Governor is heading for a victory. He will take Florida Democratic Senator Bill Scott along with him. In addition, several Floridian congressional seats (at least 3) will swing to the Democrats.

Mayor Gillum does have a problem with an FBI corruption probe over accepting some tickets for the Hamilton Musical in New York, and a reported hotel stay in Costa Rica.  However, many voters are willing to overlook this since President Trump reportedly took in an estimated $250 million in income from his hotel operations gaining business due to foreign emoluments in 2017 alone. 

Andrew Gillum- Democratic Party Superstar, Florida's Next Governor 
However, the next week still is not assured for Democrats. They will have to work hard against Trump's nationalist steamroller in order to win.

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