Monday, November 19, 2018

Bill Clinton Predicts 2020 Presidential Election Results

Master Politician Predicts Presidential Election of 2020

Enough said.

But there will be one important caveat this time around.

If Americans feel that their own economic situation is like this little hamster in the photo below, and the top 1% are the ones who are benefiting from the "Republican economic boom", then there is nothing the Republican Party can do to keep Donald Trump or his successor in control in the White House.

You can bank on this prediction.

American Workers - Can They Get Ahead In Trump Economy?



Saturday, November 17, 2018

Reality Check: This is how many Congressional Seats and Governorships Republican Voters Suppression Efforts Cost Democrats in the 2018 Midterm Elections:

Republican Voter Suppression Strategy  Is Increasingly Effective

Voter Suppression was highly effective for the Republican Party in the 2018 Midterms.

What is Voter Suppression?

Voter suppression is a strategy to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing specific groups of people from voting.

Voter Suppression is part of the history of the United States of America.

It was most famously deployed in former Confederate States as a way of disenfranchising newly freed slaves after the American Civil War ended in 1865. Although it was illegal to ban voting on the basis of race alone after the passing of the 15th amendment to the Constitution in 1870, African Americans in the South were discouraged from voting by being subject to poll taxes, literacy tests (that were made up for them on the spot to fail), pure terrorism in the form of KKK rallies and lynchings (public hangings), and economic disincentives. The voting rights of African Americans were not protected until passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, one of the greatest achievements of President Lyndon Baines Johnson.

Although every American citizen, including anyone born in the USA has a right to vote, other groups, such as Latino Americans who are not economically and socially integrated in Western States, Native Americans on reservations who may not have required "street addresses" on driver's licenses but have P.O. boxes as an address (a problem in North Dakota), and college students who may lack the propers forms of increasingly rigorous ID requirements found themselves disenfranchised this year.

Republican officials such as Georgia's Secretary of State, Brian Kemp, whose successful race for Georgia's Governor against Democrat Stacey Abrams was helped by his throwing off the voting rolls of up to 60,000 voters for questionable reasons are other examples of how Republicans can write rules which elect them. This is a strategy which will increasingly benefit them as the natural Republican constituency - older, white people who aim to protect their narrow (and wealthy) economic interests -- decline as a percent of total voters.

Here are my estimates for how many seats the Republicans won because of voter suppression.


Voter Suppression in Mississippi - 3,959 black victims of mob violence in twelve southern states between 1877 and 1950
(Note- See the Memorial that Recently Opened in Mississippi to Lynchings Here)


Governorships:

Florida: (Andrew Gillum)  (The race has not been called and is in recount at the time of this article, but Gillum is expected to lose.

Several  reports show how the Florida election machinery, which was controlled by Rick Scott and the Republican Party, disfavored younger and minority voters.

Georgia: (Stacey Abrams).  The Georgia governor's race of 2018 will be a textbook case of why voting reform needs to become a priority if the USA is to protect its democracy in future years.

Senate Seats:

The Senate itself is not a purely Democratic institution. Every state has two Senators. California, the most populous state, which now has more than 40 million people has as much representation as Wyoming, which has 600,000 people. California is now a reliably blue (Democratic) state, and Wyoming a reliably red (Republican) state. There is no way this requirement will change anytime soon, it is one of the core foundations of the Republic and would require 3/4 of the states to agree to a change - something that is not going to happen anytime soon. 

We know that at least one new Senator, Rick Scott, the current Governor of Florida, will be in office through suppression of younger and minority voters. A recount is underway at the time of writing this article.  Bill Nelson, who has not conceded but almost will certainly lose once the recount is over.

There are two seats where voter suppression hurt the Democratic Party incumbent. However, I do not think they would have won reelection since Trump is so popular in their states. 

Missouri: Claire McCaskill

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp

Example of Gerrymandered House District -- How to Keep Republican Numbers Up in Congress


House of Representatives:

My projection is that voter suppression, including gerrymandering,  has cost the Democratic Party at least 12 seats in the 2018 House of Representatives.

This is, admittedly, hard to prove. Gerrymandering in places like North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Ohio is costing costing Democrats at least 4 or 5 seats on their own.

If the 2020 election is as close as past ones, and if large states like Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are as close as they were in 2016, voter suppression will continue to be a key and effective weapon for the Republican Party to deploy in the face of demographic changes that are going against them.








Wednesday, November 14, 2018

2020 Electoral College Electoral Map Projection #1




Our first way too early electoral map projection for the 2020 Presidential election which is under 2 years away.

The next presidential elections will occur on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

270 electoral votes are required to win.

Projected electoral votes as of November 14, 2018: 


  • Democrat: 191
  • Republican: 170
  • Undecided: 177


                  

Monday, November 12, 2018

Some Way Too Predictions For 2020 Presidential Race - My Thoughts About Potential Candidates



Hey fellow political junkies!  The 2020 Presidential season begins in earnest right now. The 2020 Iowa Presidential Caucus is under 14 months away.  On (or before) February 3, 2020, Democratic and Republican Iowans will gather in living rooms, churches, and college auditoriums to being selecting delegates for Presidential Nominating Conventions.

Just when you thought things could slow down in the election predictions business, here are some of my way too early predictions about the 2020 presidential race.

Will Mitt Romney Give It One More Go?

1. President Trump will gain at one serious Republican opponent by that time for the Republican Presidential Nomination. This candidate might be one of the following well known Republican politicians, or someone else. This candidate will do better in Iowa then expected, and will have momentum going into the important New Hampshire Primary scheduled shortly after Iowa.

  • Utah Senator and 2012 Republican Nominee Mitt Romney
  • Arizona Senator Jeff Flake*
  • Ohio Governor John Kasich*
  • Tennessee Senator Bob Corker*
  • Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse
  • Businessman and Billionaire Mark Cuban
  • Cindy McCain, Widow of John McCain (note- she may run just to get on Trump's nerves)


Is American Ready for Betomania?

2. The Democratic Party will see a the emergence of a highly charismatic and energetic politician under the age of 50 quickly move to a central postion for the presidential nomination. Some possible candidates, with current age in parenthesis, include:


  • Texas Congressman and Senatorial Candidate Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke (46) *
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (49) (note: Booker will be past 50 in 2020 but he is under 50 right now and makes the cut for this list) 
  • California Congressman Eric Swalwell  (37)
  • Former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro (44) (note: his twin brother, Joaquín, is a Congressman from Texas)
  • Eric Garcetti, Mayor, Los Angeles (47)
  • Pete Buttegieg, Mayor, South Bend Indiana (36) (note: will make waves as first serious LGBT major party candidate if he runs)
  • Gina Raimondo, Governor, Rhode Island (47)  (note: Governor Raimondo is the only female on this list because of age; other female candidates such as Senators Harris and Warren are not mentioned here because they are past 50 and are currently considered front runners). 



*Note: Will leave office in 2019

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Eddi Predicts the 2020 Senate Elections - The Democrats are In Better Shape than 2018


The Important 2020 Senate Elections are less than 2 years away.

These will coincide with the Presidential Election, which will almost certainly feature a Republican Donald Trump running for a second term against a Democratic Party opponent. The election will be bitter and one of the most of the most divisive since the bitter mid-1800's Civil War period.

The Entire U.S. House of Representatives will be up for reelection. Democrats will be seeking to expand upon their majority.

In addition,  34 Senators will be up for reelection. Unlike the 2018 Midterms, more Republicans (22) will be defending their seats than Democrats (12).

It looks like the Senate will break down as 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (and two independents who vote with Democrats) if two undecided races break to leading candidates (Arizona to D- Kyrsten Sinema and Florida - R to Rick Scott) pending final voting counts.

The party that wins the Presidency controls the Senate in the event of a 50 / 50 split, since the Vice President gets to cast a tie breaking vote. 

Which seats right now are the most ripe for pick-up efforts by either party?

Republican targets:

Alabama: Doug Jones (D)  won a special election against a particularly bad candidate, State Judge Roy Moore, is the #1 Republican target in this very red state. He simply is too progressive for the people of his state.

Michigan:  Gary Peters (D)  is a supposed target since Michigan narrowly voted for Trump, but Michigan is returning to its Democratic roots, has elected a Democratic Governor in 2018, and Peters is popular in his home state. I do not see him as a viable target.

Democratic targets:

Arizona  Open Seat (R):  This is John McCain's seat which will filled by former Republican Senator Jon Kyl who is not running for reelection.  Democrats have been doing well in recent years in Arizona. If they carry this state in 2020 they can carry the Senate seat.

Colorado:  Cory Gardner (R):  Colorado voted for Hillary Clinton and is turning more blue every year. Colorado just put in office Jared Polis as Governor, a Democrat, as America's first LGBT Governor.  Cory Gardner is a right wing Republican and will be seriously challenged by a well funded Democratic candidate.

Iowa: Joni Ernst (R): Although Senator Ernst would probably win election today, due to her 51% approval ratings, if Trump ratchets up agricultural tariffs, or if the economy starts to tank, she will find herself open to a challenge in this state that has been known to elect Democratic Senators.

Maine: Susan Collins (R): Collins was once one of the most popular Senators ever elected in her home state, and was lionized by both Democrats and Republicans. However, her deciding vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh, and some of her other statements which have identified her as a firm member of Mitch McConnell's caucus have left her open to a well-funded challenge among Democrats. Former National Security Advisor Susan Rice is mentioned as one possible candidate.

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R): If North Carolina votes for a Democratic candidate for President, there is a chance that carry over voting could occur and elect a Democrat here.  Tillis won his seat over Democratic Senator Kay Hagan in 2014 by less than 50,000 votes.

Other Senate seats could open up --- if incumbents decide not to run for reelection, or die or resign in office and are replaced by Governors or through other means.

The Democrats do have a shot at taking the Senate chamber in 2020. Few, except for Doug Jones in Alabama, are truly vulnerable.

Saturday, November 10, 2018

How Good Were My Predictions for the 2018 Midterms? I think they were pretty good!

Eddi's Unconventional Source For 2018 Predictions 

How did I do with my predictions?

I think they were pretty good!  In fact, I might get total accuracy in predicting Senate, 95% accuracy in predicting Congressional, and 95% accuracy in predicting gubernatorial election numbers.

You can check my final predictions here. 

https://eddipredicts.blogspot.com/2018/11/my-final-predictions-for-2018-midterms.html


The Senate  


Final Prediction:   

Although more Democrats win seats (24 Democrats to 11 Republicans), Republicans increase their number of seats in the Senate to 53.

  • 53 R, 47 D     
Actual Results (as of 11/10/18):
  • 52 R,  46 D,  2 not yet called  (Florida and Arizona) 

----------

The House of Representatives


Final Prediction:  

The Democrats will increase their number of seats by 32 and take control of the House of Representatives by 15 seats.

  • 225 D,  210 R
Actual Results (as of 11/10/18):
  • 226 D, 199 R, 9 not yet called

--------

Gubernatorial Elections:

I predicted that Democrats will win at least 9 states from Republicans. They will win at least 18 of the 36 states up for election, including most of the more populous states.

Actual Results (as of 11/10/18):

The Democrats picked up 7 states from Republicans to date and are awaiting the results in two states where Republicans are currently ahead, but in which not all the ballots have been counted. 

Democratic gubernatorial candidates won the following Republican-held states:

Illinois
Kansas
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Wisconsin

Undecided pending final count of votes:

Georgia: Republican is ahead but a runoff election is possible if either candidate does not get 50%

Florida:  Republican is ahead, pending recount.

The only Republican pick-up was in Alaska, where the prior governor was an independent. 


Sunday, November 4, 2018

My Final Predictions For the 2018 Midterms on Tuesday, November 6




Here are my final predictions for the U.S. 2018 Midterm Elections

Glossary:

D- Democrats
R- Republicans

The Senate  

  

35 Seats out of 100 are up for election:   9 R,  26 D

Current:             

  • 51 R, 49 D                
Final Prediction:   

Although more Democrats win seats (24 Democrats to 11 Republicans), Republicans increase their number of seats in the Senate to 53.

  • 53 R, 47 D                
Notes: 

1. The Democratic Senators include 2 Independents up for reelection in 2018 who vote with the Democrats (Sanders, Vermont and King, Maine) and are included in their totals

2. One of Mississippi's 2 Senate seats will go to a final election on November 27 if a candidate does not receive 50% of the vote. However, the Republican candidate is favored to win. 

3. 33 Senate Seats are usually up for election since Senate seats have 6 year terms. However, two seats (Minnesota and Mississippi) are special elections to fill vacancies. 


-------

The House of Representatives


All 435 Seats are up for election:


Current:  
  • 235 R,  193 D, 7 Vacancies

Final Prediction:  

The Democrats will increase their number of seats by 32 and take control of the House of Representatives by 15 seats.

  • 225 D,  210 R

___________________

Gubernatorial Elections:


Although I have not made gubernatorial predictions in this blog except for Florida, here are my predictions for 2018.

36 of the 50 States will be election their governor.

The current breakout overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party:  26 R, 9 D, 1 Independent

I predict that Democrats will win at least 9 states from Republicans. They will win at least 18 of the 36 states up for election, including most of the more populous states.  There is a chance that of the 10 largest states, only Texas will have a Republican governor at the end of Tuesday night.

Michigan, Illinois, and Florida are three top 10 states which currently have Republican governors and have Democratic candidates leading in polls.   Ohio and Georgia are two top 10  states that currently have Republican governors but may elect Democrats. They are currently too close to call.

Democrats are also poised to make a large turn-around in state legislative elections.



Note- You can see final results here:
https://eddipredicts.blogspot.com/2018/11/how-good-were-my-predictions-for-2018.html





Saturday, November 3, 2018

Upset Alert -- Which States Might See Upsets in the U.S. Senate Elections on Tuesday?

Elections are set for Tuesday, November 6

The U.S. Senate Elections are set for Tuesday, November 6. 

Although I will not give numerical odds, there is a chance that these 6 states could see an upset on Tuesday. However, given the right odds, I just might vote on the following candidates to pull off an upset on election date.

Clear Favorites are in Green: They are up by at least 5 percent points in the  11/3/18 Real Clear Politics average of polls

From most likely to be upset, to least likely. 

New Jersey: Menendez (D,I) vs. Hugin (R):    Menendez is simply disliked too much locally for brush-ins with ethic violations. Although New Jersey is a solidly blue state, voters may simply not be able to stomach voting for him on Tuesday.  An upset is possible.

California: Feinstein (D,I) vs. deLeon (D)  (note: California's System has two Democrats running against each other):  The large undecided vote is a wild card that could turn against Feinstein.

Texas: Cruz (R,I) vs. O'Rourke (D):  O'Rourke is catching up in the late polls. Still, Texas is Texas, and Trump remains popular here.

Tennessee:  Blackburn (R) vs. Bredesen (D): Although Bredesen is a popular former governor, the Republican machine in Tennessee will turn out the vote for Blackburn on Tuesday.

West Virginia: Manchin (D,I) vs.  Morrissey (R):  Trump is highly popular in West Virginia, and Morrissey has made some polling inroads. I do not see an upset as being likely, the Manchin machine will get out the vote on Tuesday.

North Dakota: Kramer (R) vs. Heitkamp (D,I):  Heitkamp has pulled victories out of tight elections before. However, Kramer is too comfortably ahead in the polls right now to see this as more than a 1 in 20 chance at best. 


Glossary:

Democratic Party Candidate: D
Republican Party Candidate: R
Incumbent Senator Running for Reelection: I


______________________________



Note: The following states have no clear front runners as of today. A case could be made in betting on either candidate. I list the incumbent first here.


Arizona:  Sinema (D) vs. McSally (R)

Florida:  Nelson (D,I) vs. Scott (R)

Indiana:  Donnelly (D,I) vs. Braun (R)

Missouri:  McCaskill (D,I) vs. Hawley (R)

Montana:  Tester (D, I) vs. Rosendale (R)

Nevada:    Heller (R,I) vs. Rosen (D)


Thursday, November 1, 2018

Breaking News: Highly Rated Emerson Poll Shows Beto O'Rourke Moving Into Statistical Tie with Ted Cruz for Texas Senate Seat


Can Beto Catch Ted Cruz by Next Tuesday?

Beto O'Rourke, the charismatic El Paso Democrat who is running against right-wing Republican Ted Cruz is catching up fast. The highly rated Emerson College poll published today shows Beto behind by only 3% points which is within the margin of error.

If Beto pulls off this upset, he will immediately be thrust into consideration as a potential Democratic Presidential or at least Vice Presidential nominee for 2020.



From Emerson College Poll Released November 1 2018

Half of the Florida Vote is Now In - An Analysis of Where Things Stand In the Ultimate 2018 Swing State


Let's not waste any time --

As readers here know, Florida is the ultimate purple state.  Florida not only is the U.S.A's  third biggest state in terms of population (after California and Texas), it has two races this year for Senator and Governor which are very close and will set the tone for the upcoming 2020 Presidential elections.

Florida also votes early. Anyone can request an early mail-in ballot, and early voting is now taking place across the state.

Florida also reports its ballots by county -- we know who has voted by party registration, and by county. In fact, actual voters are known to party election workers. If you have not voted, you can be sure that your local party volunteers are now contacting you to get you to the polls.

So what do we know about the projected vote?

All numbers are taken from Steve Schale's website. Steve Schale is President Obama's former statewide campaign manager, and is keeping a daily count of where things stand in terms of the Florida vote.

As of this morning, about half of all votes are in (3,414,365).

An estimated 7 - 7.5 million Floridians will vote in the 2018 midterms. We can project this number off the number of mail in ballots and interest in early voting.

This number is below the 9.1 million Floridians who votes in the 2016 election. This is to be expected for a midterm.

This number, however, will exceed the 2014 number by at least 1.1 million votes. There is substantially more interest in this midterm than there was in 2014.

Although slightly more registered Republicans than registered Democrats have voted in Florida to date, this is to be expected since mail-in ballots tend to trend Republican. In addition, early voting is edging closer, and the non-affiliated vote is expected to trend towards the Democrats.

The important news is that enthusiasm among black and latino voters, and newly registered college students is at levels not seen since 2008, when President Obama carried Florida by a wide margin.

My projections --

The election will be close in America's #1 swing state, but Andrew Gillum, the young (39) and telegenic African-American mayor of Tallahassee, Florida who is running for Governor is heading for a victory. He will take Florida Democratic Senator Bill Scott along with him. In addition, several Floridian congressional seats (at least 3) will swing to the Democrats.

Mayor Gillum does have a problem with an FBI corruption probe over accepting some tickets for the Hamilton Musical in New York, and a reported hotel stay in Costa Rica.  However, many voters are willing to overlook this since President Trump reportedly took in an estimated $250 million in income from his hotel operations gaining business due to foreign emoluments in 2017 alone. 

Andrew Gillum- Democratic Party Superstar, Florida's Next Governor 
However, the next week still is not assured for Democrats. They will have to work hard against Trump's nationalist steamroller in order to win.