Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Reality Check: Winners and Losers From the 2016 Election



Winners:

Donald Trump: The President Elect of the United States of America: Obviously. He has confounded everyone ever since he declared his intention to run for President when he declared his campaign on June 15, 2015. He is going to go down in American history as one of the most masterful politicians of all time.

Mike Pence: Vice President Elect:  He did a more than credible job as Donald Trump's second in the campaign, and is the defacto leader of the right wing of the Republican Party. He moves into contention as the front runner for the Republican nomination in 2020 if Donald Trump decides not to run for reelection, or in 2024.

Vladimir Putin: President of Russia:  Trump favorite, has had role in electing Trump with behind the scenes influence, US elections reconfirms Russia restoration to superpower status.

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House:  Considered a has-been now in line for a top cabinet politician

Rudy Giuliani: former Mayor of New York:  See above, now in line for a top cabinet postion, perhaps Attorney General

Marco Rubio: Republican Presidential Candidate, reelected as Senator from Florida after left for dead after terrible performance in Presidential Primary.

Chuck Schumer: Senate Majority Leader from New York:  New voice of opposition for the Democrats in Congress.

Bernie Sanders: Independent Senator from Vermont: Senior Statesman for the progressive movement in the United States of America.


Losers:

Hillary and Bill Clinton: Their 24 years of influence with the National Democratic Party comes to an end.

Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House:  The president of his own party wants him replaced. The right wing of his own party never liked him. His days as Speaker are probably numbered.

Tim Kaine, candidate for Vice President: back to Senator from Virginia, which is fine for him if he likes being Senator from Virginia. No chance for national office due to his age.

NATO.  An unanswered  challenge by Putin's Russia in the Baltic States will end this alliance's 70 year record of maintaining peace in Europe.

Roe vs Wade (Reproductive Rights): Expect these to fall once a President Trump appoints Scalia's replacement -- and as many as two other seats which may become open during his administration.

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act: National Health Care will be dead as soon as President Trump signs the necessary executive orders and Congressional bills authorizing this. The question is -- how will the 22 million people affected who lose health care be offered some life support as an off ramp?

And finally

This Blog

This is my last post. Its been a fun ride. I got it wrong, by predicting a Clinton Presidency -- but I am joined by just about everyone else in this regard. I will be taking this blog down by November 17.

Thanks for reading!

Eddi Haskell






It's Trump


Sunday, November 6, 2016

My Final Predictions for President and U.S. Senate for the 2016 U.S. Election

Projected Winners: Hillary Clinton / Time Kaine



Electoral Votes:

Clinton: 308
Trump: 230

(Note:  New Hampshire is the state I am most unsure will vote Democratic, and North Carolina is the state I am most unsure will vote Republican).


My Custom Electoral Map from 270 To Win


Nationwide Popular Vote by % (rounded):

Democratic Party-   Clinton/Kaine:    49%
Republican Party-  Trump/Pence:     45%
Libertarian Party-  Johnson/Weld:     4%
Other (including Green Party):   2%



My projections for U.S. Senate after 2016 elections - from 270 To Win

Senate:

I am projecting a 50/50 Senate tie. The party that wins the presidency will control the Senate as the Vice President will cast the 51st vote for organization.

(Note: New Hampshire is the state I am most unsure will vote for the Democratic Senate candidate, and Missouri is the state I am most unsure will vote for the Republican Senate candidate).


My Final 2016 Prediction: Hillary Clinton Will Win The Presidential Election On Tuesday, November 8

Hillary Clinton- The 45th President of the United States of America

I  now feel comfortable issuing my final prediction for the 2016 presidential election. I can say with confidence that Hillary Clinton will win the election on Tuesday, November 8.

I predict that the all-important swing state of Florida, which has cast over 60% of its votes as of Sunday, November 6 will see a flood of new voters, many from a latino/hispanic heritage, that will give Hillary Clinton enough of a lead over Donald Trump to offset enthusiasm generated from working class white voters which Mr. Trump has generated.

I will issue my exact state predictions and U.S. Senate predictions on Monday.


29 Electoral Votes for Hillary Clinton

Friday, November 4, 2016

Reality Check: The Hispanic and Latino Vote Is Proving To Be Devastating Against Donald Trump In Three Key States



The Hispanic/Latino vote is proving to be devastating to Republican Donald Trump in three key voting states through polling analysis and an analysis of early voting return trends by party registration and location (actual votes are not counted until Tuesday) in three key battleground states. My percent estimate of the final percent of the vote that will be of Latino/Hispanic heritage is enclosed in parentheses at the end of each state)

Florida  (20%)

Nevada  (21%)

Colorado  (17%)

Donald Trump must win Florida to win the presidency. There is no possible scenario in which he can win the election without Florida's 29 electoral votes.

In addition, he will, in all likelihood,  need to win either Nevada or Colorado. Although Colorado is currently polling stronger for Hillary Clinton, Nevada is considered a pure toss-up state. A strong showing among Hispanic/Latino voters will help solidify Clinton's position there.

In addition, although Trump is favored in Arizona, the Hispanic/Latino vote is projected to increase to 20% of the total vote, an increase of at least 3% over 2012. A strong showing could make this state an upset win for Clinton -- but Trump is up by 4% in recent polls due to his recent surge.

Univision released a poll last night that shows that Trump is extremely unpopular among Hispanic/Latino voters. In fact, the results were called "terrifying to Republicans".  You can see the poll here:

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/11/clintons-30-point-lead-in-fla-hispanic-poll-is-terrifying-to-gop-nationwide-107067

Pollsters may be underestimating the number of Hispanic/Latino voters in their election day composition models. What is clear though is that any perceived lack of enthusiasm in the progressive Obama coalition is being offset by anger with Mr. Trump among this important group of voters.

_________________________

Note About Florida:  The Univision poll shows that support for Clinton extends to all Hispanic/Latino groups in Florida, and not just recent immigrants. The Puerto Rico community, rapidly growing in Florida due to an economic downturn in Puerto Rico itself, is not threatened by deportation talk (they are full American citizens) yet is showing some of the highest levels of Democratic party support of any identifiable group. Cuban Americans are showing support for the Democratic candidate of over 40% for the first time in any presidential election.
__________________________

What is the Latino/Hispanic vote in the United States?

This refers to voting trends during elections in the United States by eligible voters of Latino or Hispanic background, including those with ties to Spanish-speaking nations in the Americas including Cuba and Mexico, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, a sovereign territory of the United States since 1898.


Trump's Path to the Presidency Becomes Clearer

From 270 to win


(Note- this is not a prediction)

If Donald Trump is to win the Presidency this is how he will do it.

He will need to win all of these states in which he and Hillary Clinton are running close in the polls. Of these states, only North Carolina voted Republican in 2012.

Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio
New Hampshire
Arizona
Iowa

Maine's Second Congressional district will give him the one electoral vote which will let him win the election 270 - 268 votes.

There is also a chance that Colorado could vote for Trump. I do not think Trump has a reasonable chance to carry Pennsylvania.

I will issue my final prediction by Monday, November 7.






Tuesday, November 1, 2016

My Forecast For the Presidential Vote With One Week To Go





My final Presidential prediction will be issued on Monday, November 7.  Things can change in one week.


Electoral Votes:

Clinton / Kaine: 322
Trump / Pence: 216









 National Vote by Party:


 Democratic : Clinton / Kaine:     49%

 Republican: Trump / Pence:    45%

 Libertarian: Johnson / Weld:   4%

 Other (including Green):   1%

 Note: Numbers do not add up to 100% because of rounding)