Thursday, August 11, 2016

Reality Check: The Republican Candidate For President -- Donald Trump or Other - Will Be Within 5 Points of Hillary Clinton in the Polls On September 26, 2016 -- The Date of the First Debate

I predict that the Republican nominee for President -- whether Donald Trump, or another candidate if he drops out of the race which I see as a possibility (but a declining one), will be within 5 points of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the Real Clear Politics average of Presidential Polls by the time of the first Presidential Debate set for September 26, 2016 from Long Island, New York.

Elections in the past have unexpectedly tightened up after what appear to be blowout summer months.

I do not think that Hillary Clinton has the election wrapped up. I think that anyone who thinks the election is over is calling the race too soon. The three Presidential debates (unless Donald Trump decides to cancel his appearance which he may decide to do) will be crucial in determining the race.

Even if Trump decides not to debate, I think the race will tighten up by September 26.  He is bound to become better at attacking Clinton who is still vulnerable on her email and Clinton Foundation revelations. Trump also has yet to run any direct attack ads, all negative ads have been run by affiliated PACS but not by the Trump campagin directly, and he is raising funds from direct contributors.

To quote former New York Yankee baseball great and modern philosopher,  and The game ain't over 'til it's over. Yogi also said that "this feels like deja vu all over again" which is another way of looking at the 2016 race. 

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Reality Check: There is an Even Chance Donald Trump Will Drop Out of the Presidential Race by September 1

Donald Trump's behavior since the Republican Convention has been so bizarre and erratic that I see an even chance that he will drop out of the Presidential Race by September 1.

If Mr. Trump wanted to be President, he would not be making the enormous mistakes he is currently making on a daily basis, such as attacking a Gold Star mother and House Speaker Paul Ryan. Mr. Trump is not stupid -- he is one of the shrewdest marketers and promoters on the American business scene.

If Mr. Trump suddenly goes quiet, and stops making gaffes, he is either getting rest and turning his campaign around, or he is in the process of planning a withdrawal from the election race. If he continues his odd campaign behavior, he is staying in the race. Whatever the case, this makes for a very interesting and entertaining election.

The Republican Party could replace Mr. Trump with Vice Presidential Candidate Mrke  Pence or someone else (Ryan, Romney or Bush) by September 1 fairly seamlessly -- and probably with good publicity. If Mr. Trump withdraws after that date, it will probably be too late for the Republicans to pull off a viable replacement.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Reality Check: The Vast Majority of the American Public Needs A Break From Presidential Politics

The vast majority of the American public needs a break from Presidential election politics. Non-stop coverage of the primary and convention seasons since the end of January requires a break beginning about now for all but the most hard core political followers.

Although the saga of Donald Trump has made this Presidential election more interesting than usual, most Americans will not be paying that much attention to election politics until the first Presidential Debate set for Monday, September 26. This is barring some dramatic political developments which cannot be ruled out this year.

Interest in the Presidential campaign should pick up before the first Presidential debate set for September 26.

Four debates, including one Vice Presidential debate are planned.

There is a chance these debates will be cancelled. Donald Trump may decide to cancel his appearance  according to current news reports.

Here is the tentative debate schedule as of August 1, 2016:

Monday, September 26, 2016 First presidential debate Location: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 Vice presidential debate Location: Longwood University, Farmville, VA 

Sunday, October 9, 2016 Second presidential debate Location: Washington University in St. Louis, MO

Wednesday, October 19, 2016 Third presidential debate Location: University of Nevada, Las Vegas,

All debates will air from 9:00 to 10:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

For more information about the debates: