Wednesday, June 29, 2016

How Donald Trump Can Win the Presidency - The White Bread Strategy

It is a given in forecasting presidential elections that the Republican Party without the third largest state by population, Florida.  Of the four largest states, three - giant California, New York, and Illinois reliably vote for the Democratic Party candidate. Only Texas reliably votes Republican Florida is the largest swing state. And, with 29 electoral votes, Florida  counts for more than 10% of the 270 electoral votes needed for winning the electoral college. Remember, in the American electoral system, each state votes as a block. Florida, California, New York, and Illinois add up to 133 electoral votes -- almost half of the 270 needed to win. It is almost impossible for any Republican candidate to break this "combination lock",

However, Donald Trump does have a possible try.  His appeal to white blue collar working class voters who traditionally vote Democratic in several states, or people who eat white bread,  could win the election for him. It is a long shot but if Trump can win traditionally Democratic Pennsylvania (the new swing state in 2016) together with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and  Ohio he will win the Presidency. However, given the way he his alienated latino voters in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, his only path to victory is to seek a high turnout among the blue collar white voters who have faired so poorly in the new economy where they have lost manufacturing  jobs and income in the post-industrial economy. Many also voted for Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton should not take these voters for granted.

Friday, June 24, 2016

I Blew This Prediction - The U,K. Votes To Leave the EU

I got this prediction wrong - The U,K. Votes to Leave the E.U. I think it was all about opposition to immigration. It is quite a coincidence that Donald Trump is in Scotland today - or is it?

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

I Predict the United Kingdom Will Say No to the Brexit and Vote to Stay in Europe

It's not The U.S. elections but I predict the U,K. will vote to stay in Europe and say no to a Brexit. The elections are set for Thursday, June 23.

I happen to be a citizen of the United Kingdom in case anyone is interested. 

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Reality Check: Does Donald Trump Really Want To Be President?

I am not convinced that Donald Trump wants to be President.

I do not believe that Donald Trump is as racist, misogynist, or bigoted as his comments as of late would have the public and media to believe. HIs past record is not that of a hardened bigot.

I think that Donald Trump's outrageous remarks and behavior are due to exhaustion  Donald Trump is 70 years old. His schedule of constant travel would be punishing for anyone half his age. His subconscious (in the Freudian sense) may be protecting him since the stresses of a Presidency could very well kill him.

In addition. if he ever were to be elected President, his past financial dealings such as his taxes -- or lack of them -- would have to become public. If, as speculation has it, Trump went for many without paying any, it would be at a cost of enormous personal embarrassment.

Donald Trump's approval numbers are cratering. The most recent ABC News / Washington Post Poll shows him with a 69% negative approval rating. Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite in the election -- and the Democratic Party has not yet united behind yet -- and angry Bernie Sanders is still withholding  endorsement.  It is incredible that Trump is not the favorite in the election. The last time a sitting Democratic President handed over the White House to a  Democratic Party successor was in 1856.

Donald Trump may be too proud to withdraw from the Presidential race at this point. He could by claiming health reasons. But he seems to be playing a game of chicken with the Republican Party-- more racist outbreaks could see a complete revolt at the Republican convention next month in Cleveland Ohio. Get your popcorn ready!

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Reality Check: President Obama's HIgh Approval Ratings Points To A Democratic Sweep in November

President Obama is at a three-year high in his approval rating according to today's average of polls in Real Clear Politics. He is now is positive territory, with over 50% of Americans approving of the job he is doing as President -- with a spread of nearly 5%.

The last time his ratings were this high were in February, 2013. immediately after his second inauguration and landslide electoral college win over Republican Mitt Romney.

President Obama's rising approval numbers, combined with improving poll numbers for Hillary Clinton in her race vs. Donald Trump for President point to a Democratic Party electoral college landslide in November together with a retake of the U.S. Senate from Republican Control.  The House of Representatives, though, will still remain controlled by the Republican Party due to a built-in majority of at least 5% due to district gerrymandering and built-in advantage for incumbent reelection. 

Sunday, June 5, 2016

My Predictions For The Tuesday, June 7 California and New Jersey Democratic Primaries

Several states vote on Tuesday the two largest being California and New Jersey. I project that Hillary Clinton will win California by a narrow margin, and New Jersey by a wider margin.

Since Donald Trump has wrapped up the Republican primary season, I have stopped making projections for the Republican side of the fence.

I have already predicted that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee.  She, in fact, will wrap this up as soon as New Jersey closes its polls including her Superdelegate commitments.

These are the last primary projections I will be making. The only remaining primary is Washington, D.C. on June 14 which Hillary Clinton should win handily.


Democratic Projected Winner - Hillary Clinton

New Jersey

Democratic Projected Winner - Hillary Clinton