It is a given in forecasting presidential elections that the Republican Party without the third largest state by population, Florida. Of the four largest states, three - giant California, New York, and Illinois reliably vote for the Democratic Party candidate. Only Texas reliably votes Republican Florida is the largest swing state. And, with 29 electoral votes, Florida counts for more than 10% of the 270 electoral votes needed for winning the electoral college. Remember, in the American electoral system, each state votes as a block. Florida, California, New York, and Illinois add up to 133 electoral votes -- almost half of the 270 needed to win. It is almost impossible for any Republican candidate to break this "combination lock",
However, Donald Trump does have a possible try. His appeal to white blue collar working class voters who traditionally vote Democratic in several states, or people who eat white bread, could win the election for him. It is a long shot but if Trump can win traditionally Democratic Pennsylvania (the new swing state in 2016) together with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio he will win the Presidency. However, given the way he his alienated latino voters in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, his only path to victory is to seek a high turnout among the blue collar white voters who have faired so poorly in the new economy where they have lost manufacturing jobs and income in the post-industrial economy. Many also voted for Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton should not take these voters for granted.