Monday, May 30, 2016

This Is How Donald Trump Becomes The Next President of the United States - An Imaginary Timeline of Events



Although I still think the odds are with Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party, here is how Donald Trump could become the next President. This is an imaginary timeless of events   that will be continued. The two main factors working in Trump's factor in this imaginary timeline are 1. An angry Bernie Sanders who refuses to conceded to Hillary Clinton and 2. a newly professional Donald Trump.

Please note :  This is not my prediction.  And I have built humor into this timeline, and a bit of absurdity. But it is possible that something like this scenario could happen, laying the fondation for a Trump victory in November.


June 5, 2016

Hillary Clinton wins the Puerto Rico Primary.  Her delegate total at the end of the day, including Superdelegates, is 2,346. She is only 37 delegates away from the Democratic Party nomination.

June 7, 2016:

Super Tuesday in June, when 694 delegates are awarded in primaries in 6 states, including California.

8:01 PM Eastern Time (EST): The news networks announce that Hillary Clinton wins the New Jersey Democratic Primary in a landslide, gaining 75 of New Jersey's 112 elected delegates.  In addition, she has gained her party's nomination by more than 40 delegates when committed Superdelegates (non-elected) are added to her total.  The major networks anoint her the presumptive party nominee.

8:30 PM:  Hillary Clinton claims victory in New Jersey at a campaign event. She does not, however, claim the party's nomination, since California is still voting. She compliments compliment Bernie Sanders and invites him and his  supporters into the big Democratic Tent and into her campaign.

11:05 PM:. Polls close in California. The race in California too close to call.

June 8, 2016.

1:45 AM  EST:  The major news networks announce that Bernie Sanders has won the California Primary.

2:00 am. EST: Bernie Sanders announces at a press conference that the voice of the people has spoken in California, and claims a huge victory. He also announces that he will continue his race until the Democratic Convention with the strategy of snatching Superdelegate votes away from Hillary Clinton since "her emails scandal is getting worst by the day", and "he is doing so much better in the polls against Donald Trump).

12:00 Noon: Hillary Clinton claims the Democratic nomination later in the day and urges party unity. She compliments Bernie Sanders and invites his supporters into the big Democratic Tent and into her campaign.

4:00 PM:  Donald Trump holds a press conference and urges Bernie Sanders to run as a third party candidate  since "the nomination has been stolen from him by" Crooked Hillary Clinton" and her "sleazy" cohort, Debby Wasserman Schultz, the leader of the Democratic National Committee. He also urges that Bernie's supporters riot at the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia (he calls it a strong protest) and mentions that his own supporters may want to help the Sanders supporters in their efforts.  Donald Trump insists that there is room in his campaign for the Bernie Sanders movement, who he lavishes praises on -- if Bernie does not do "the logical thing", which is run as an independent or Green party candidate for President

June 15, 2016:

An average of the major polls in Real Clear Politics shows Donald Trump with a 4% edge over Hillary Clinton. Republicans, who were split a few weeks ago, fall in line behind Trump since they cannot believe their good fortune. Polling details show that only 50% of Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary Clinton,.  15% plan to vote for Trump, 12% for another party, 8% will not vote, and 15% are undecided. Almost none expect Bernie Sanders to be the nominee.

June 17 2016: 

Massachusetts Senator and leading progressive Elizabeth Warren formally endorses Hillary Clinton for President, saying that the nomination has been locked up for a while, and that Hillary Clinton will will be a good progressive President. She avoids questions about her potential place on the ticket as Vice President. Radical Bernie Sanders supporters immediately attack her in social media and stage "Occupy Warren" sit-ins in her offices around Massachusetts. They refer to her as "Traitor Liz the Phony Democratic Whore who will do anything for money" and shut down her Face Book presence. Donald Trump offers the "Occupy Warren" protestors free hotel rooms at his resorts and casinos as a good - will gesture.

June 30, 2016:

The House Select Benghazi Committee announces the findings of their two-year investigation Part 1. .  The report is issued in the names of the Republicans on the committee only. Hillary Clinton is found to be directly responsible for just about everything wrong with American Foreign Policy, and has been accused of being a willful and subversive (I am not going to continue here but the report is not good). Part 2 is due to come out in mid September, and Part 3 right before the election.

July 11, 2016:

Donald Trump picks experienced Tennessee Senator Bob Corker to be his running mate  Corker is seen as a traditional establishment Republican who is wise on foreign policy matters. The Republican Party, Speaker Paul Ryan (who endorsed Donald Trump in late June), and the media hail the choice of Corker as a wise and sage move on the part of newly professional candidate Donald Trump.

July 18 - 21:

The Republican Convention in Cleveland, Ohio is a huge success. Donald Trump gives a dynamic and coherent speech the Republican nominee on the final day of the convention and exceeds media expectations. He has also drops his hateful rhetoric about Muslims and Latinos, and speaks of a "big Republican Tent" with a smiling Paul Ryan and Bob Corker at his side. Trump announces that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has put his name in nomination, will have a major role in his administration, along with Marco Rubio and Dr. Ben Carson. The media is impressed, and hardly mentions that the Bush Family is not attending the convention, and has failed to endorse Donald Trump.

July 25:

The Democratic Convention opens in Philadelphia. Hillary Clinton has not yet announced her Vice Presidential choice. Crowds gather outside the convention in Philadelphia, where all eyes are on Bernie Sanders, who makes a Prime Time speech that night. Suspense builds at and outside the convention. Will Bernie announce that he is endorsing Hillary Clinton?  Will he be nominated for Vice President?  How is he reacting to the Platform fights which have emerged between the establishment and far-left wings of the Democratic Party?

You can cut the tension with a knife. Bernie Sanders knows that he can make- or break -- Hillary Clinton's chances tonight.

---

To be continued.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Updated Odds on the Presidential Election -- Trump's Odds Increase As Republicans Unify and Democrats Remain Split

Donald Trump has a 44% to be elected, Hillary Clinton has a 54% chance



Here are my updated odds on who will be elected President in November 2016.

My last set of predictions -- from May 6 --  are closest to the candidate's name and are in black.

Explanations:

Unexpected Republican unity behind Donald Trump and continued Democratic infighting between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton have significantly upped the odds of a Republican President in November.

Hillary Clinton's odds will increase if the Democratic Party is able to unity behind her after the Philadelphia Democratic Convention in July.

Democrats:  Hillary Clinton remains the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination.There is a 1% chance Bernie Sanders- or anyone else- could take the nomination away from her.

Republicans:  Donald Trump has wrapped up the nomination.  There is only a 1% change some unforeseen event could change this reality.

Third Party -- I have lowered the odds to 1%. that a mainstream Republican or centrist party could emerge to win the nomination.

Note: May 6  results are in back , current results for May 17 -- projected today are in red. 



1. Democrat:         65%                    54%                            


Hillary Clinton:     64%                    53%
     
 Bernie Sanders
or anyone else:           1%              1%

_____________________

2. Republican          34%                 45%



Donald Trump -       33%                    44%

Anyone Else:             1%                     1%

_________________________


3. Third Party Candidate:   1%           1%



The last "third party" candidate who was elected President was Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 - four candidates actually competed in that election at the outbreak of the Civil War. The last third party candidate who came close to winning was former President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912,  who ran on the Progressive Party and gained 25% of the vote. . However, there is always a chance this can happen, especially in an year like 2016 when one party (The Republicans) are in  disarray. 

Monday, May 16, 2016

My Predictions For The Tuesday May 17 Kentucky and Oregon Democratic Primaries




It's close -- but both primaries are closed to registered Democrats only and Hillary Clinton has won every closed primary in 2016. In addition, a recent poll in Oregon showed Clinton ahead.

Since Donald Trump has wrapped up the Republican primary season, I am not making any more projections on the Republican side of the fence.

This is the last projection I am making before the last state primaries on Tuesday, June 7 including the large California primary.

I have already predicted that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee.




Kentucky


Democratic Projected Winner - Hillary Clinton



Oregon


Democratic Projected Winner - Hillary Clinton

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Reality Check: The 2016 Presidential Election Is Like the 2000 Election On Sterioids

Bush Vs. Gore in 2000


2016 is the 2000 Presidential election on steroids. The Democrats are going for a third straight Presidential term, something they have not pulled off since 1940. An “establishment” Democrat (Hillary) will probably get the nomination. Where the differences (on steroids) lie is that the likely Republican nominee is not establishment but extreme, and that the opposition to the establishment Democratic candidate (Hillary) is even more pronounced than it was against Al Gore at this point in the election. Ralph Nader got 2.7% share of the vote in 2000, and there was no candidate on the right that got more than one half of a percent of the national vote (Buchanan). I do not know if Jill Stein (Green Party) will do better than Ralph Nader in 2000, but I expect that she will. The unknowns are 1. Will a Conservative candidate run to the right of Trump with any traction (I suspect one will emerge), and will Trump be able to unify his party by keeping his mouth shut. I suspect we are in for more twists and turns over the next six months.

Monday, May 9, 2016

My Prediction For The Tuesday May 10 West Virginia Primary



West Virginia votes tomorrow and it will be another Bernie Sanders victory. Independents can vote in the Democratic Primary in this state, and now that Donald Trump has won the Republican nomination, many of his supporters will  vote for Sanders.

I will no longer project Republican primary winners, since Donald Trump is now the presumed Republican nominee.


Note:

West Virginia, home of one of the most powerful American unions, the United Mine Workers,  used to be one of the most reliably Democratic states in Presidential elections. West Virginia voted for the Democratic Party Candidate in every election from 1932 -  1996 with the exception of Republican landslides in the years 1956 (Eisenhower), 1972 (Nixon), and 1984 (Reagan). However, starting in the 2000 election, West Virginia became a very Republican state in Presidential elections. The Democrats gained below 36% of the vote in 2012. This can be explained by social issues -- West Virginians are overwhelmingly against gun ownership restrictions; over 51%are evangelical Protestant.  West Virginia is one of the most economically depressed of the 50 states.



West Virginia



                                           Democratic Party Projected Winner:  Bernie Sanders

Friday, May 6, 2016

Updated Odds on the Presidential Election -- The Reality of Donald Trump sets in

Donald Trump has a 34% to be elected, Hillary Clinton has a 64% chance



Here are my updated odds on who will be elected President in November 2016.

My last set of predictions -- from April 19 --  are closest to the candidate's name and are in black.

Explanations:

Democrats:  Hillary Clinton remains the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination.There is less than a 1% chance Bernie Sanders could take the nomination away from her, and another 1% chance that some unforeseen event could deny the nomination to Hillary.

Republicans:  Donald Trump has wrapped up the nomination.  There is only a 1% change some unforeseen event could change this reality.

Third Party -- I have lowered the odds to 1%. that a mainstream Republican or centrist party could emerge to win the nomination.

Note: April 17 results are in back , current results for May 6 -- projected today are in red. 

1. Democrat:      57%            65 %
Candidates:


Hillary Clinton -   51%        64 %

      
 Bernie Sanders -   5%           1%   (Note: Number is for Bernie Sanders ot any other candidate)

 Any Other Candidate - 1%      

(in the event that an unforeseen event impacts the Democratic Primary elections). 

_____________________

2. Republican          41%          34%

Candidates:

Donald Trump -       25%           33%

Ted Cruz -                  9%             --

Any Other Candidate:    1%         1%

(John Kasich, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or another compromise candidate may emerge in the event of a Trump flame -out.

_________________________


3. Third Party Candidate:   2%                 1%


The last "third party" candidate who was elected President was Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 - four candidates actually competed in that election at the outbreak of the Civil War. The last third party candidate who came close to winning was former President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912,  who ran on the Progressive Party and gained 25% of the vote. . However, there is always a chance this can happen, especially in an year like 2016 when one party (The Republicans) are in  disarray. 

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Reality Check About the Democratic Party Presidential Race: What Will The Landscape Look Like Through the June 7 California Primary?

Hillary Will Still Be The Nominee But-



1. Bernie Sanders won because Indiana is an open primary. In just about every open recent primary (Michigan, Wisconsin, Rhode Island) the Sanders vote has been underestimated by the pollsters. Hillary still won overwhelmingly among registered Democrats.

 2. The Hillary Clinton campaign needs to rethink its strategy of sitting back through the convention and ignoring Sanders. I read that they are not planning to spent ad dollars through the end of the California primary. This is a mistake. The Clinton campaign needs to fight California (where independents can vote in either party) and New Jersey which will vote on June 7.   Bernie Sanders needs to be taken at his word -- he is not going to endorse Hillary after the last Primary is over as Hillary did with President Obama in 2008.

 3. While Clinton (barring some unforeseen disastrous event) will be the nominee, Bernie Sanders can weaken her position by forcing her to spend money now -- and by continuing attacks against her which will further depress her approval ratings. Sanders can also hinder her electability though a lukewarm endorsement.

 4. Of the important upcoming primaries, New Jersey, Oregon, Kentucky, and Mexico are closed to registered Democrats. This should favor Hillary (except for Oregon which is predominately white and has a very liberal voting tradition. West Virginia and California and South Dakota allow independents to vote in the Democratic Primary. Only Montana is truly open.

 5. If I were Trump, and if it looks like I had the nomination down pat by California, I would get the word out to independents who supported me to vote for Sanders. I would aim to make Hillary looks weak and would do what I could to make sure Bernie made it to the convention, and pushed the Democratic platform as far left as possible. Strategic voting is something independents are good at.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Reality Check: It's Over. Donald Trump Has Locked Up the Republican Nomination. It's Hillary vs. Trump


Ted Cruz has pulled out of the Republican race tonight. Donald Trump will be the nominee.

Questions Remain:

1. Who will get the Vice Presidential slots for each party?

2. Will any Third Parties emerge on the left or right, or even the center?

3. Will Bernie Sanders support Hillary Clinton enthusiastically, or will be merely give a weak endorsement and sit out the race?

What we do know for sure -- we are in for an interesting six months -- this is going to be the most bitter election since the 1964 which saw Lyndon Johnson destroy a Republican Barry Goldwater in a landslide.