Saturday, April 30, 2016

My Prediction For The Tuesday May 3 -Indiana Primary: It's Close (Revised)



Indiana




Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton


(note: The Indiana primary is open -- this should increase the vote for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.  Any voter can vote for any candidate they choose).






Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Will Trump Try To End The Republican Race Early By Selecting Kasich as his VP?



Donald Trump is the clear leader for the Republican nomination for President. However, he does not have the nomination locked up. It is also unlikely that he will gain the Republican nomination if he does not win on the first ballot.

There is one thing Donald Trump can do immediately to lock up the Republican nomination. That is select Ohio Governor John Kasich to be his Vice Presidential running mate. Kasich has 153 delegates that could swing into Trump's column if he were to accept Trump's offer. This would leave Trump with at least 1,100 delegates.  All that will be required is another 137 elected delegates which Trump will certainly win when New Jersey and California vote on June 7 - if not before.

Here are more advantages to selecting Kasich:

1. The Republicans need to win the State of Ohio to win the Presidency. Kasich is a highly popular governor of Ohio and will help carry the state.

2. Kasich and Trump have not yet attacked each other to any great degree.

3. Kasich has a great deal of foreign policy and governmental budgeting experience that will give the Republicans needed gravitas when up against Hillary Clinton.


Here are disadvantages to selecting Kasich

1. Kasich may refuse to run on a ticket with Trump. One thing Trump can do is agree in private to support Kasich in 2020 if he loses the race, and Kasich decides to run. However, Kasich may be leary of any promise made by Trump due to trust issues.

2, The Koch Brothers - and big moneyed interests associated with them -- do not particularly like Kasich. His economic policies are too moderate for their taste. They have already said that they may support Hillary Clinton in the fall -- and the selection of Kasich may solidify this sentiment.

3. Most importantly, the right wing of the Republican Party -- the Tea Party and fiscal conservatives- may find Kasich to be too moderate and may run a third party conservative candidate if he is selected. This will not only doom not  Republican ticket in November, but may elect a Democratic House and Senate. If Trump gets the nomination and appoints a hard-right VP (like Ted Cruz) this should stop any talk of a Third Party emerging.

Trump needs to soundly win Indiana next Tuesday to be assured of the nomination. Even then, his nomination will close. If he only wins a handful of delegates in Indiana, an offer to Kasich will be in the cards -- if not made already.

However, I do not expect Kasich to take it if offered. The taint of Donald Trump, and what many perceive as racist policies against Latinos and Muslims, may be  too much for Kasich to tolerate.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

My Predictions For Tuesday April 26 - The Northeast Regional Primary. Will Trump and Clinton Wrap Things Up? (Revised)


The Elephant and Donkey -- Symbols of the Republican and Democratic Party



Five Northeastern states vote today.  The combined delegat haul will be the largest for either party since Super Tuesday on March 1, 2016.  Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump should confirm their status as frontrunners today.  Clinton will put more pressure on Bernie Sanders to drop out of the race if she wins Pennsylvania and Maryland, the two largest states to vote today.  Donald Trump will move closer to the nomination if he takes all five states, which appears to be likely.  However, we will not know if Trump can clinch the Republican nomination on the first ballot until California votes on June 7 -- the final prize on the nomination quest.


Here are my predictions:
(Note- on Sunday April 24 I decided to award Rhode Island to Clinton).


Connecticut


Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton



Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump



Delaware


Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton



Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump



Maryland


Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton



Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump



Pennsylvania


Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton



Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump



Rhode Island



Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump


Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Updated Odds on the Presidential Election -- Democratic Party Disunity Shows an Impact




Here are my updated odds on who will be elected President in November 2016.

My last set of predictions -- from March 16 --  are the the right and in red.

Explanations:

Democrats:  Disunity in the Democratic Party, and hostility to Hillary Clinton from Bernie Sanders supporters reduces the odds of the Democrats winning to 57%. The odds that Hillary Clinton may face a third party candidate on the left have increased. Even a marginal candidate like Ralph Nader in the 2000 election can lead to consequences for a Democratic candidate (Bush vs. Gore).  Hillary Clinton remains the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

Republicans:  The odds a Republican presidential candidate are raised to 41% due to disunity in the Democratic Party. . I have reduced Donald Trump's odds to 25% - I feel that the Republican establishment's efforts to deny him the nomination may succeed.  I am raising Ted Cruz's odds to 9% because of his ability to gain delegates in states that he has not won at the expense of Donald Trump. A late entry candidate, like Paul Ryan (who I still believe will take the Republican nomination in the event of a deadlocked convention) or Mitt Romney have increased slightly.

Third Party -- I have raised the odds to 2%.  A centrist candidate running on a third party ticket might still emerge, but the odds are very much against this happening.


1. Democrat:      57%         61%  (March 16 odds are in red)

Candidates:

Hillary Clinton -   51%        54%

 Bernie Sanders -   5%        6%

 Any Other Candidate - 1%      1%

(in the event that an unforeseen event impacts the Democratic Primary elections). 

_____________________

2. Republican          41%          38%

Candidates:

Donald Trump -       25%         30%

Ted Cruz -                  9%          4%

Any Other Candidate:    7%          4%

(John Kasich, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or another compromise candidate may emerge in the event of a deadlocked convention).  

_________________________


3. Third Party Candidate:   2%        1%


The last "third party" candidate who was elected President was Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 - four candidates actually competed in that election at the outbreak of the Civil War. The last third party candidate who came close to winning was former President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912,  who ran on the Progressive Party and gained 25% of the vote. . However, there is always a chance this can happen, especially in an year like 2016 when one party (The Republicans) are in  disarray. 

Saturday, April 16, 2016

Monday, April 11, 2016

Reality Check -- One Very Odd Fact About the New York Republican Presidential Primary -- The Bronx Rules!!!!


The important New York Primary occurs next Tuesday, April 19.

Each party gets to set their own rules.  I found very strange fact about the Republican delegate selection process want to share with you.

New York State is divided into 27 Congressional Districts.  What the Republicans are doing is awarding each Congressional District three delegates, no matter how many Republicans are in each district. By doing this, they are making areas with very few registered Republicans very important.

The most Republican Congressional District in the State of New York is in upstate New York.  This district has 185,078 Registered Republicans (according to the most recent New York State election data).  One delegate to the Cleveland July Convention will be elected per 61,692 Republicans-- 1/3 of the total--  will be elected from the 27th district.

Now let's take a look at the least Republican Congressional District. It is the 15th, entirely withing the New York Borough of the Bronx. This district is very poor --with many Latinos who vote overwhelmingly Democrat.  There are very few registered Republicans here -- only 15,767 reside here. One delegate will be elected per 5,255 Republicans.

This means that Republicans in the 15th Congressional District in the Bronx have more than 11 times the power -- in terms of delegates elected per enrolled Republicans. This is an incredible figure -- it makes any Republican who votes here very important!

This is bound the help Donald Trump who has more support in downstate New York than conservative upstate. It is another reason why he should do very well in  the Republican Primary.

You can check my figures here:
http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_apr16.pdf

Saturday, April 9, 2016

A Behind The Scenes Push Is Doing Whatever It Can To Get This Man The Republican Nomination -- Watch Out Democrats!

House Speaker Paul Ryan

The Republican establishment is doing whatever it can to give to Republican nomination to House Speaker Paul Ryan - who at the current time is the most powerful Republican elected official in the United States and #2 behind President Obama in power.  Nothing is allowed to come up for a vote in Congress without his approval, including all financial and budgetary matters.

Ryan, the Republican candidate for Vice President in 2012, is young (46), well spoken, handsome, bright, likeable and "a good man"  (according to Joe Biden).  Ryan  has the ability to come across as a moderate Republican even though his economic policies put him in the far right of the Republican Party that wants to cut both taxes and social programs as much as possible. He is a candidate of the establishment -- the Koch Brothers and other big moneyed interests.

Paul Ryan  should be acceptable to all wings of the Republican Party as a compromise candidate - with the exception of Donald Trump's wing who will probably consider the election stolen if he is not nominated. Paul Ryan is of  Irish ancestry, and a religious Catholic family man which these days is perhaps the optimal ethnic group to be elected President to gain crossover independent and Democratic votes in the Midwest, a prime swing state area.

Paul Ryan was elected by a wide margin from a nominally Democratic district in Wisconsin, a very reliable Democratic state in national elections. He is a proven vote-getter.

Do I think he will get the Republican nomination?  He is a longshot at best. The odds are that either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will manage to pull together a victory. However, do not rule out Ryan. Democrats take note -- he is going to be a hard opponent to beat in November -- that is, of course, unless Donald Trump or a hard right Conservative decides to run a third party candidacy.

Ryan even had the audacity to release a "non-Candidate" commercial for President this week.  And this was done despite his pleas that he is not a candidate. There is no way he would have authorized this paean to himself if this were the case. You can catch it here:

http://www.speaker.gov/video/politics-these-days

Watch out Democrats. The Republican Party has a way of doing whatever it takes to keep itself in power -- even if involves "breaking the rules" just a little bit.


Ex-Gym Trainer Paul Ryan- Popular with the Ladies





Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Reality Check: This is how Bernie Sanders Can Win the New York Primary



The New York Democratic Primary on April 19 is make or break for Bernie Sanders. If Bernie can win New York, the state which Hillary Clinton should easily win since it is her home state and one that she represented in the Senate for 8 years, his campaign will have a compelling narrative to continue through the important California Primary on June 7.

Just about every important Democrat in the state has endorsed Hillary Clinton.

If he loses New York, even by 1%, Hillary Clinton will probably be unstoppable in terms of  delegate count through the election. Although she will lose more of her lustre if it is a narrow win -  5% or under --  a win's a win.

Here is how Bernie Sanders can win New York. Please note -- it is highly unlikely that he win New York. But if he does, this is how he will do it.

New York is roughly divided into three areas for statewide Democratic elections:

New York City (minus the county of Richmond or Staten Island which resembles a suburb) is approx. 50% of the total stateside Democratic vote.  New York City has a large population of African American and Latino Democrats, and powerful local Democratic organizations.

New York City's suburbs -- the counties of Nassau and Suffolk (Long Island), Westchester (home of the Clintons, and the northern counties of Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Duchess -- together with Staten Island account for approx. 23% of the Democratic vote. (Note:  I confirmed these numbers with the most recent registration numbers published by the State of New York as of April 1).  These suburbs are wealthy, and Hillary Clinton's "home turf"

Upstate New York -- including the rustbelt cities of Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse -- account for 27% of the Democratic vote. Upstate New York is predominately white, and represents the areas where Bernie Sanders has done well -- including the states of Michigan and Wisconsin. In addition, Eastern Upstate New York -- the Albany area and north - border Bernie Sander's Vermont.

This is how Bernie Sanders can get a victory in New York.

Upstate. Sanders will need 70% of the vote. Sanders should win upstate -- but 70% will be a high percentage for him.  Hillary Clinton is well known as former Senator - and should be able to get 30% of the vote.

New York Suburbs:  Sanders will need 40% of the vote.  This is Hillary Clinton's most favorable turf She has done well in higher income areas, and is well liked here. In addition, Clinton scores well among certain ethnic groups and older voters who predominate here. Sanders will be pressed to get 40% of the vote here but it is possible.

New York City: Sanders will need 45% of the vote to win the state. In order for Sanders to do this, he will need to win over African-American and Latino voters, two groups which have gone to Hillary by wide margins in other states. At least 25% of the Democratic Party vote in New York City is by self-identified Jewish voters who tend to be more "moderate", concerned about foreign policy issues in the Middle East, and will be in Hillary Clinton's corner.

If Sanders can do this, he will end up with slightly more than 50% of the vote by weighted average. This will be a huge victory, and one of the greatest upsets in modern political history.  Sanders did this in Michigan in March 2016, and it is possible he can do this in New York, but winning over minority voters is key.


Hillary is still the favorite in New York -- but by how much?

Prediction: It's Over. Donald Trump Will Not Be The Republican Nominee For President

Fugetaboutit Donald it ain't happening.!


Trump's loss in the Wisconsin Primary tonight by 15% of the vote (latest count) to Ted Cruz was bad for him -- but not as bad as the incredibly unprofessional "concession" statement that was bitter and accusative to the conservative wing of the Republican Party.

Donald Trump still should have a victory in New York on April 19 and should have somewhat of a bounce-back in the other Northeastern States on April 26. But this is not the issue -- the Republican Party establishment will not accept him as the nominee. The risk of Trump losing in a landslide victory to Hillary Clinton or any Democratic candidate -- and taking the Republican controlled Senate and House are there. The Republican Party would rather have Trump and his supporters not support the Republican candidate -- and even mount a third party insurgency -- than hand the Republican Party and its machinery over to him.

The issue now for the Republicans is this. Do they want to nominate far right-wing Texas Senator Ted Cruz -- or an undeclared candidate such as House Speaker Paul Ryan who is waiting in reserve for a call. Paul Ryan will be a very effective Presidential candidate if he runs against Hillary Clinton.

I still predict Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee and will win the all-important New York Primary on April 19 despite her loss in Wisconsin tonight. Clinton still won the African-American vote by 75 - 25%, which is less important in Wisconsin than New York. It may be by only a few percentage points but this is all Clinton needs. Her 200 delegate and two million popular vote advantage will be hard for Sanders to overcome every if he continue to campaign and raise money as effectively as he has.

But goodbye Trump!  Trump's decision now now is how much damage does he wish to do to the Republican Party.  I doubt if he will just sit back. We still have an interesting and unpredictable 8 months coming up before the November elections.  

Monday, April 4, 2016

Reality Check: Upsets in Wisconsin Will Effectively End the Republican or Democratic Presidential Nomination Race

Wisconsin in the Springtime

I have already predicted that Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz will win their respective parties nomination in the Wisconsin Primary set for tomorrow, April 5.

However, there may be an upset. In the Democratic Primary. Hillary Clinton has pulled within two points of Bernie Sanders in the latest CBS Poll.   If Clinton were to win Wisconsin, the Democratic race will be seen as all but over.  It will become nearly impossible for Sanders to win enough delegates to win the nomination, and all important momentum will be gained by the Clinton campaign.

If Donald Trump somehow wins Wisconsin, the Republican race similarly would end. The Trump machine will have regained its momentum after two poor weeks of media coverage. Trump is down six points in the most recent CBS poll =  and seen as in decline due to his many gaffes.

If Cruz and Sanders win Wisconsin, as they are projected to do, they will not necessarily get their parties nomination.  But their respective party races will continue though the important New York Primary in two weeks on April 19 which both Clinton and Trump must win as home state candidates if their campaigns are not seen as seriously damaged. 

Friday, April 1, 2016

My Predictions For The Wisconsin Primary on Tuesday, April 5 - Will The Two Front Runners Stumble in the Badger State?




Wisconsin Primary  


Projected Winner -- Bernie Sanders


A victory by Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin will help in his comeback narrative against Hillary Clinton  - he will have won 6 of the past seven contest (Idaho, Utah, Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska). However, Wisconsin awards delegates proportionally.  Hillary Clinton should still have a lead of 200 delegates after the votes are in.  And Wisconsin -- with a primarily white electorate -- has an open primary which benefits Sanders.  If Hillary Clinton scores an upset (Sanders is up by 6 points in the polls) it will be very damaging to the Sanders campaign. But, as I said earlier this week. New York on April 19 is the big Democratic showdown. Bernie Sanders must win New York in order to have any chance of winning the nomination.



Republican Projected Winner - Ted Cruz


Wisconsin is a must-win for Ted Cruz and the Republican Party if they want to stop Donald Trump. 18 delegates will be selected by a winner-take-all format statewide, and 24 by winner-take-all in 8 congressional districts. Cruz is up in the polls and has been endorsed by former candidate and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. If Trump pulls out an upset and wins, it will continue his drive for the Republican nomination - which the Republican Party is  willing to stop at all costs.