|New York is more than New York City|
The Democratic Party nomination battle for President is going to come down to the important New York Primary on April 19.
Both candidates have ties to New York or course, and New York will be a bellwether for the other Northeastern States that vote on April 26. Bernie Sanders is very much from New York City of course -- his folksy Brooklyn accent is a large part of his charm. Hillary Clinton represented New York State as Senator for eight years, and is a resident of Westchester County along with her husband.
Either Bernie Sanders beats Hillary Clinton, or he pulls out of the nomination race. Even if he does not withdraw, his campaign will be seen as essentially over.
Hillary Clinton could survive a narrow defeat in New York -- she still has an enormous delegate lead as of the time of the writing of this post (225 delegates) -- but will need to win large states after this time, including Pennsylvania on April 26 to be seen as not collapsing. A loss in New York of any size would set up questions among the Democratic establishment of her viability against Donald Trump (or another Republican) given her problems with her ongoing email investigation.
Bernie Sanders should win Wisconsin primary on April 5 for one reason -- it is open and anyone can vote. He then will win the Wyoming (the smallest state) caucuses on April 9. Then we have a merciful 10 day break until New York. If Sanders can win New York, he will have won 7 states in a row. The media will anoint him the candidate with enormous momentum.
Another factor in Sander's favor will be ad spending. He has more resources to put into this race than Clinton in terms of ad dollars. He is raising 10 million more dollars a month (40 - 30 million) than she is. However, I am not sure if saturation ad spending will make that much of a difference among the highly informed New York Democratic electorate.
Hillary Clinton has several advantages here:
1. She is well liked in New York, and won reelection in 2006 with 67% of the vote. She resigned in 2009 to become Secretary of State.
2. Clinton won a landslide victory in New York Primary in 2008 against President Obama for the Democratic Nomination in 2008 (57% - 40%) in a hotly contested primary. She has a track record here.
3. New York is a primary and not a caucus (Sanders does well in a caucus format).
4. New York is a closed primary. Only registered Democrats can vote. Independents will not be able to -- and they have provided the margin for victory for Sanders in the open primary and caucus states he was won, most notably Michigan.
5. New York has a large registered Democratic African American and Latino vote, and a large senior vote. Sanders has done poorly with these groups.
The most recent respected poll in New York by Emerson shows Clinton with a 71% - 23% lead over Sanders. Although I do not expect her to win by that margin, she should win with at least 60% of the vote. If she does win by this margin, the Democratic Race will be over -- even if Sanders can win important California in June.
New York of course does has a large left - liberal element in the Democratic Party that will vote for Bernie, but unless Sanders can make big inroads in the minority community there is no way he can win New York. It is simply not going to happen.
|It's New York or Bust for Bernie|