Monday, February 29, 2016

Prediction: If Marco Rubio Does Not Win One State Tomorrow, Super Tuesday, There Is a 40% Chance Mitt Romney May Enter The Race

Romney is Thinking About Running -- Will he?

On Paper, 44 year old Senator Marco Rubio  is an ideal candidate for the Republican nomination. He is young (44), well spoken, handsome, and of latino heritage (Cuban).  He is a darling of the Tea Party yet acceptable to mainstream Republicans. He is from Florida, the one state that the Republicans must win to win the Electoral College.

However, as good as Marco looks, sounds, and works out on paper, he has not yet won a state, and may not win any of the 15 States that have their Republican primary or caucus tomorrow. He is stuck at 17% in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, slightly below far-right Texas firebrand Senator Ted Cruz.

At the end of the day Tomorrow, Ted Cruz should win his home state of Texas, and the first caucus state of Florida. However, Marco Rubio is not ahead in any state. He is also well behind Donald Trump in his home state primary of Florida on March 15.

It is an adage in Presidential Politics that you have to win your home state to stay in the race -- and that you have to at lease win one state at some point to get the nomination.

There is backlash in the Republican Party to Donald Trump. Up to  50% of the party including some of the largest donors will not accept his nomination.  However, they need a candidate to rally behind to stop him.

Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee from 2012, who came within 4% of President Obama in the popular vote despite losing overwhelmingly in the electoral college is considering a late entry into the Race.  He still could file and enter late Primary States including New Jersey and California.

If Trump sweeps Super Tuesday and Marco Rubio continues to lose, the establishment Republicans are not going to hand their party over to Donald Trump without a fight. And embarrassing Trump with late season losses is something they may want to do even if he wins the nomination.


Marco Rubio, The Ideal Candidate Is Not Winning

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Betting Odds on Who Will Be the Next President of the United States

The White House - Who Will Be the Next Resident?


You can bet on who will be the next President of the United States after the 2016 elections.

Here are my percent odds as of today.

1. Democrat (52%)

Candidates:

Hillary Clinton - 47%

 Bernie Sanders - 4%

 Anyone Other Candidate - 1% 

(in the event that an unforeseen event impacts the Democratic Primary elections). 

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2. Republican (47%)

Donald Trump -  30%

Marco Rubio  - 7% 

Ted Cruz - 6%

Any Other Candidate: 4%

(John Kasich, late entrant like Mitt Romney,  or compromise candidate like Paul Ryan) 



3. Third Party (1%)

The last "third party" candidate who was elected President was Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 - four candidates actually competed in that election at the outbreak of the Civil War. The last third party candidate who came close to winning was former President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912,  who ran on the Progressive Party and gained 25% of the vote. . However, there is always a chance this can happen, especially in an year like 2016 when one party (The Republicans) are in  disarray. 

Saturday, February 27, 2016

My Predictions for Super Tuesday, March 1 . The Southern United States Votes


Primary States


Alabama



Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump

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Arkansas



Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump


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Georgia 


Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton



Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump



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Massachusetts




Projected Winner: Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump


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Oklahoma





Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton



Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump

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Tennessee



Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump

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Texas


Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Ted Cruz

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Vermont



Democrat Projected Winner: Bernie Sanders



Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump


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Virginia



Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump

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Caucus States



Colorado




Democrat Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump


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Minnesota


Democrat Projected Winner: Hillary Clinton




Republican Projected Winner: Donald Trump

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In addition the following caucuses will be held today.


Democrat: American Samoa

Republican:  Alaska, North Dakota, Wyoming




Friday, February 26, 2016

Reality Check: Donald Trump Does Not Have The Republican Nomination Locked Up



This will be a short post.

Donald Trump does not have the Republican nomination locked up.  And he will not have the Republican nomination locked up unless enough delegates will be elected to or will agree to vote for him to be the Republican Nominee at their national convention in Cleveland Ohio in July 2016.

Trump's problem is a large percentage of the Republican Party, perhaps a majority of registered Republicans, will not accept his nomination. Many do not think he is a true conservative, which is anathema in today's Republican Party.

Trump's is not benefitting from a "bandwagon" effect -- his early wins and expected wins on Super Tuesday, March 1 are not winning him the overall confidence of Republicans.   And, until this happens, he will remain an outsider fighting for the endorsement of the party's establishment. 

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Prediction: Bernie Sanders Needs To Win At Least Three States -- In Addition To His Home State of Vermont -- By March 1-- To Continue a Serious Candidacy

Losing Nevada Hurt Bernie Sanders


The race for the Republican and Democratic nominations for President will pick up steam in the next five days.

On the Democratic side, 12 states will cast their primary or caucus votes by March 1.

South Carolina will have its primary on Saturday, February 27.  I have already predicted that Hillary Clinton will will this state.

11 States will vote on Super Tuesday, March 1. Of these, Bernie Sanders is only assured of winning his home state of Vermont.

Hillary Clinton is favored to win 7 states in the South. They are Alabama, Arkansas (where her husband was governor), Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia (which is both a Southern and Northeastern State in voting patterns).  Hillary is strong with African-Americans who are important in primaries in this region, and Latino voters in Texas.

In addition, Massachusetts which borders Sanders home state of Vermont, Colorado, and Minnesota vote on these days. Although polling is scarce, these states should be a better environment for Sanders than the southern states which should favor Hillary.  Winning these three states will leave Sanders as a serious, but not a favored candidate for President. If not, Clinton may have the nomination sewed up on March 15, when the large states of Florida and Illinois, in which she is favored, vote.


Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

The Nevada Democratic Party Caucus & South Carolina Republican Primary Are Three Days Away- Here Are My Predictions

Note:  The Elephant is the symbol of the Republican Party, the Donkey the Democratic Party



The Nevada Democratic Party Caucuses for President and South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary occurs on Saturday, February 20.  Here are my predictions:

Nevada Democratic Caucuses (43 delegated): Polling results show a tie between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. This is a state that is crucial for Sanders and one that he is currently spending millions of dollars of advertising to win. However, I believe that Hillary Clinton's strength with Latinos, senior citizens, and other core Democratic Party constituency groups will win the election for her.  The Nevada Caucuses are closed to Democratic Party Members which should help Hillary -- but same day party registration is allowed.

South Carolina Primary (50 delegated):  This should be a win for Donald Trump.  He is ahead in the polls. His campaign will be seriously damaged if he loses this race. This is an open primary, and any registered voter can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. This should help Trump.

The State of Washington will also be holding a Republican caucus today. However, only a portion of delegates will be selected, and the national media is ignoring this race for the most part.

Note that both states have differing dates for the different parties. The Republican caucuses in Nevada are scheduled for Tuesday, February 23, and the South Carolina Democratic Primary is set for Saturday, February 27.




Winner of Nevada Democratic Caucus



Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton


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Winner of South Carolina Republican Primary



Projected Winner: Donald Trump



Monday, February 15, 2016

Prediction: The February 20 Nevada Caucuses Will Make or Break Bernie Sanders

Las Vegas, Nevada


The Democratic Party in the western State of Nevada will hold statewide caucuses for President on Saturday, February 20.

I predict that these elections will make or break the candidacy of Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders.

Note, I am not willing to predict Sanders will be the Democratic Party candidacy if he wins Nevada-- I am saying that his nomination will be seen as possible by those who are still discounting his chances.

If he wins, he will be seen as equal to Hillary Clinton in prospects for the Democratic nomination for President.  The Democrats will hold their national convention in Philadelphia on July 25 - 28 2016 and decide on their ticket then.  However, a convincing Clinton win in South Carolina the following week and in the Southern States which are up on March 1 should put her in the lead again.

If Hillary Clinton wins she will stay the frontrunner in the public and media eye.  This will provide momentum for her as her campaign gears up for the South Carolina Democratic Primary on February 27.

Hillary Clinton is expected to win that election due to the high percentage of Democratic Party voters who are African-American.   They actually make up a majority of the Democratic Party electorate in South Carolina, and Hillary Clinton is considered to be overwhelmingly popular with that group.

Clinton victories in both Nevada and South Carolina may provide her with enough momentum to win the nomination, despite Sanders ability to raise huge amounts of campaign funds.

I will make my prediction on who will win the Democratic Caucuses in Nevada later this week. The caucuses are closed to registered Democrats -- which provides a big advantage to Hillary. Independent voters favored Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary by a wide margin, and could be expected in Nevada if the caucuses were not restricted to actual Democrats.


Nevada will make or break Bernie Sanders. 


Friday, February 5, 2016

The New Hampshire Primary is 4 Days Away -- Here Are My Predictions




The New Hampshire Primary occurs on Tuesday, February 9. Both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are well ahead in the polls as of today, Friday, February 5.  If either of these frontrunners loses the New Hampshire Primary they will be effectively out of the race for President. However, if they win, their respective party nominations are by no means secure or favored for them.


Winner of the New Hampshire Primary - Democrat



Projected Winner: Bernie Sanders


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Winner of the New Hampshire Primary - Republican



Projected Winner: Donald Trump