Sunday, January 24, 2016

The Iowa Caucuses Are 8 Days Away -- Here Are My Current Predictions

Iowans Caucusing in 2012

The 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections start Monday night, February 1, in the midwestern state of Iowa, which will hold Democratic and Republican caucuses.

A caucus is not an election.  It is a gathering of people who express their preference for a presidential candidate by appointing individuals to county and statewide conventions.  The first Primary, or actual election with a ballot, will be held in the New England State of New Hampshire on Tuesday, February 8.

Here are my predictions for the winner of the Iowa Caucuses as of today. I may revise my predictions next weekend.  Only a very narrow margin separates the first and second place candidate projections.

Please note that I have not been able to keep up my publishing schedule here due to personal issues.

Winner of Iowa Democratic Caucus

Projected Winner:  Hillary Clinton

Second Place: Bernie Sanders


Winner of Iowa Republican Caucus

Projected Winner: Donald Trump

Second Place:  Ted Cruz

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

The Iowa Caucuses are 26 Days Away. The Results Will Be Crucial for These Two Candidates

The Iowa caucuses will be held on Monday night, February 1. Thousands of registered Republican and Democratic voters will gather in living rooms, social clubs, and churches for several hours to "caucus" on which candidate they want for President.  Unlike a primary, there are no ballots, and no official statewide elections. New Hampshire will hold the nation's first primary 8 days later on Tuesday, February 9.

Two campaigns are dependent on the results:

Democratic Caucus:  Bernie Sanders needs a win to be seen as a serious challenge to Hillary Clinton. Sanders will most likely win the New Hampshire primary on February 8 -- he is from the neighboring state of Vermont and almost has "favorite son" status in New Hampshire.

However, if Hillary Clinton wins Iowa -- and then wins the following Nevada Caucus on February 23, and the South Carolina primary on February 27, where she is heavily favored, the race for the nomination will essentially be seen as over.

If Bernie Sanders can win Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states, he may be able to gain enough momentum to challenge Hillary on Super Tuesday - March 1, 2016 - by winning Vermont, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Colorado.  The Southern and Western States which also vote on that day should go to Hillary -- but Sanders could challenge all the way to the Democratic convention if he has early momentum starting with an Iowa win.

As of today, Hillary is favored in Iowa by a polling average of 13%. However, Iowa is very fluid and Sanders could pull out a win if his younger supporters get out and vote.  Hillary was favored in Iowa in 2008 and ultimately lost the state to President Obama. It could happen again.

Republican Caucus:  Right-wing and ultraconservative Ted Cruz must win the Iowa Caucuses if he is to challenge Donald Trump and a yet to emerge more moderate "establishment" candidate which could be Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, or another candidate like Mitt Romney who might event at the last minute.

Ted Cruz will cement his position as the right-wing candidate if he wins Iowa. He is not expected to win New Hampshire the following week; Trump and Christie should do better in this socially moderate state.  However, he will do well in conservative states like South Carolina and Texas which are up in the following weeks.

Cruz currently leads Donald Trump by 4% in Iowa according to an average of polls over at Real Clear Politics. If he ultimately loses to Trump, his campaign will be damaged and may not be able to recover.

Some publications and web sites are saying that Iowa will not be important this year. I disagree -- and see the role of Iowa as crucial to the 2016 nomination for President for both parties. 

Saturday, January 2, 2016

I Give My Odds Of Who Will Win the 2016 Republican Nomination for President

Here are my own odds of which candidate will receive the Republican nomination for President at their 2016 National Convention which will be held in Cleveland, Ohio from July 18 - 21.

The odds given for non declared candidates including Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are in the event of a brokered and deadlocked convention, or a late run for the Presidency by Mitt Romney if a clear leader for the nomination does not emerge by the end of February 2016.  I set the possibility of any of these scenarios happening at 7%.

Declared Candidates as of January 2, 2016:   93% Odds

Ted Cruz - 34%

Donald Trump - 30%

Marco Rubio - 20%

Jeb Bush - 4 %

Chris Christie - 3%

Any other declared candidate - Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee- 2%

Non-Declared Candidates as of January 2, 2015: 7%  Odds

Mitt Romney - 3%

Paul Ryan - 2%

Any other non-declared candidate - 2%