Wednesday, May 15, 2019

5 Key Reasons Why Trump is the Clear Favorite for Reelection in 2020

As of today, President Trump is headed for reelection in 2020.  Here are 5 Key Reasons Why:

1. The economy is booming:

The economy of the United States is booming. Unemployment is at a 49 year low of 3.6%. Although claims can be made that the economy is overheated, and fueled by unsustainable tax cuts, inflation is still under control. Americans may need to see evidence of a recession to replace their commander in chief.

2. The Democratic Party remains split between progressive and moderate wings moving into the 2020 race. Divisions that cost it the 2016 Presidential Election show no signs of healing.

Moderate and Progressive Democrats do not like each other. The moderate, established wing of the Democratic Party, represented by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former Vice President and leading 2020 Presidential Candidate Joe Biden are at odds with Democratic Socialists Bernie Sanders and newly powerful New York City Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Unless a Presidential Ticket is able to unite the two sparring wings of the party, it will head down into defeat.

3. Trump's approval rating remains a solid 40%:

Although more Americans disapprove than approve of Trump, his approval ratings are a solid 40%. He is the most popular Republican president since Ronald Reagan. Republican voters are older and more likely to vote than their Democratic counterparts.  And, as any good military tactician knows, a smaller striking force can easily defeat two opposing wings of an opposing army.

4. The United States is not fighting a land-based war of any large magnitude for the first time in decades.

Under President Trump, the United States has cut down its international military operations involving land based forces to a massive degree. Americans like weekly news reports which do not show young American soldiers returning home in body bags.

5. Built in advantages such as the electoral college, and voting suppression laws, continue to favor Republican dominance in Presidential elections.

Although the Democratic Party candidate in 2000 (Al Gore) and 2016 (Hillary Clinton) received more popular votes than their Republican counterpart, the Republican candidate won because of the arcane Electoral College, which can only be eliminated by Constitutional Amendment or an informal pact between the states. Not only that, laws which suppress minority turnout remain on the books in key swing states including Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.   The Democratic Party will continue to lose close elections unless these obstacles are overcome. 

Sunday, April 21, 2019

The Presidential Campaign is Now Upon Us - What are dates to look for in the next several months?

The Democrats pick their candidate on July 13 - 16  2020

The 2020 elections, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, are 18 months away.

The two parties will formally pick their candidates in the summer of 2020 at nominating conventions. Trump is overwhelmingly predicted to win his parties nomination. However, he has picked up his first opponent, former Massachusetts Governor William Weld, who is as moderate and liberal on social issues a Republican can get. It is yet to be seen if Trump will even bother debating him.

The Democrats have already attracted considerable interest with a wide range of candidates in the field and preparing to enter. Some key dates to keep in mind are -

June 26 and 27 2019 --- The First Presidential Debates

Debates will continue through the end of the year

The Nominating Primaries and Caucuses kick off in 2020

Four small states will first go in different regions:

February 3:     Iowa 

February 11:    New Hampshire

February 22:   Nevada

February 29:   South Carolina

States will vote in large "blocks" in March. The candidate should be effectively selected by the end of this month.

March 3: (Super Tuesday) -  Alabama, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia

March 7:  (Louisiana)

March 10:  (Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Washington (State), North Dakota, Democrats Abroad

March 17:  Arizona, Florida, and Illinois primaries

March:   (undetermined dates)  Colorado, Maine, Wyoming

In case a clear winner is not selected by the end of March, two important primaries should sort things out for Democrats in April:

Wisconsin:  April 7

New York:  April (date undetermined, New York could move the primary up to March).

The Democrats are "front-loading" their nominating process in the hopes of picking a nominee by April 1.  The drawn out party nominating process and recriminations between the Sanders and Clinton forces was seen as one reason why the party could not effectively unify in time for the general election. California's move to March from its traditional June date should help clarify the situation earlier.